The WHO have commenced creating multi-page Situation Reports.[2] They contain more granular data than is publicly available. They will be reported at least once per week.
If I become impatient, I'll cobble together the individual country's numbers via reliefweb.int, then update that once WHO data are available (which may result in a drop in totals as WHO numbers may have been collected a littler earlier).
Latest data taken from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/135029/1/roadmapupdate26sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1
Date of DON: 26-Sept
Dates covered: 23-Sept
A note about the proportion of fatal cases (PFC):
On these graphs, my PFC calculations for West African countries and the DRC are based on dividing the total number of suspect/probable/confirmed deaths by the number of total suspect/probable/confirmed cases for the same date. This is crude and may be a sizable underestimate of the true PFC.
It may be better to use the deaths at the most recent date divided by the total cases from 9-14-days earlier (this number is not precisely known) to better account for the lag in time between presenting to a treatment facility and dying (for those who do not recover).
Some estimates suggest the true PFC may be closer to 80%. I don't have enough data (or smarts) to be able to calculate that for now so please be aware the PFC above is likely an underestimate.
Reminders:
- The chart above, as with all on VDU, is made for general interest only. It is also freely available for anyone's use, just cite the page and me please. It may be that I have misinterpreted the language in the reports (sometimes a little tricky to wade through) or miscalculated some totals based on the way data have been presented.
- Sometimes there are very country-specific differences in what gets presented to/via the World WHO DONs/SitReps which make this process less clear than it could be. I recommend you have a read and compare the data from each of the countries for yourself to understand these issues.
- As I've talked about previously,[1] these numbers are all volatile for a variety of reasons, some Ebola-specific, so regard this chart for its trends only.
- I am only able to plot what is publicly available. To date, this does not include granular data with dates of onset, or daily data of any kind. The WHO have these data and you will see them become more available through their Situation Reports found here http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/
- Ebola virus disease and lab testing...http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/ebola-virus-disease-and-lab-testing.html
- Ebolavirus outbreak Situation Reports
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/
No comments:
Post a Comment