Showing posts with label World Health Organisation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Health Organisation. Show all posts

Thursday, July 10, 2014

Ebolavirus disease (EVD) cases, clusters and outbreaks mapped out...

The West African region outbreak (top map) and the totals from past Ebola outbreaks and the few imported monkey cases (the US & Philippines; hence zero human cases) plotted by total numbers and country (bottom map)

These maps are best viewed alongside my Ebola numbers page found here.


The WHO have commenced creating multi-page Situation Reports.[2] They contain more granular data than is publicly available. They will be reported at least once per week.


If I become impatient, I'll cobble together the individual country's numbers via reliefweb.int, then update that once WHO data are available (which may result in a drop in totals as WHO numbers may have been collected a littler earlier).

This is a static page - it will be updated with new numbers but the website address will remain the same.

Latest data taken from: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/135029/1/roadmapupdate26sept14_eng.pdf?ua=1
Date of DON: 26-Sept
Dates covered: 23-Sept




A note about the proportion of fatal cases (PFC): 
On these graphs, my PFC calculations for West African countries and the DRC are based on dividing the total number of suspect/probable/confirmed deaths by the number of total suspect/probable/confirmed cases for the same date. This is crude and may be a sizable underestimate of the true PFC.

It may be better to use the deaths at the most recent date divided by the total cases from 9-14-days  earlier (this number is not precisely known) to better account for the lag in time between presenting to a treatment facility and dying (for those who do not recover). 

Some estimates suggest the true PFC may be closer to 80%. I don't have enough data (or smarts) to be able to calculate that for now so please be aware the PFC above is likely an underestimate


Reminders:

  • The chart above, as with all on VDU, is made for general interest only. It is also freely available for anyone's use, just cite the page and me please. It may be that I have misinterpreted the language in the reports (sometimes a little tricky to wade through) or miscalculated some totals based on the way data have been presented. 
  • Sometimes there are very country-specific differences in what gets presented to/via the World WHO DONs/SitReps which make this process less clear than it could be. I recommend you have a read and compare the data from each of the countries for yourself to understand these issues. 
  • As I've talked about previously,[1] these numbers are all volatile for a variety of reasons, some Ebola-specific, so regard this chart for its trends only.
  • I am only able to plot what is publicly available. To date, this does not include granular data with dates of onset, or daily data of any kind. The WHO have these data and you will see them become more available through their Situation Reports found here http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/

References... 
  1. Ebola virus disease and lab testing...
    http://virologydownunder.blogspot.com.au/2014/04/ebola-virus-disease-and-lab-testing.html
  2. Ebolavirus outbreak Situation Reports
     http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/

Saturday, May 31, 2014

The International Health Regulations (IHR) 2005...

I've heard a lot about the IHR but I have not read the entire document. 

This post is just to note which States are considered to be a party to them and what they mean in general terms.

 A blog-friendly reformatted excerpt from the Foreward (highlighting is mine)...

"The purpose and scope of the IHR (2005) are “to prevent, protect against, control and provide a public health response to the international spread of disease in ways that are commensurate with and restricted to public health risks, and which avoid unnecessary interference with international traffic and trade.” The IHR (2005) contain a range of innovations, including: 

  • (a) a scope not limited to any specific disease or manner of transmission, but covering “illness or medical condition, irrespective of origin or source, that presents or could present significant harm to humans”; 
  • (b) State Party obligations to develop certain minimum core public health capacities; 
  • (c) obligations on States Parties to notify WHO of events that may constitute a public health emergency of international concern according to defined criteria; 
  • (d) provisions authorizing WHO to take into consideration unofficial reports of public health events and to obtain verification from States Parties concerning such events; 
  • (e) procedures for the determination by the Director-General of a “public health emergency of international concern” and issuance of corresponding temporary recommendations, after taking into account the views of an Emergency Committee; 
  • (f) protection of the human rights of persons and travellers; and 
  • (g) the establishment of National IHR Focal Points and WHO IHR Contact Points for urgent communications between States Parties and WHO."


This was taken from the PDF of the IHR2005 [1]

References...

  1. International Health Regulations 2005
    Second Edition
    http://whqlibdoc.who.int/publications/2008/9789241580410_eng.pdf?ua=1