MERS-CoV data request: A response from the Ministry of Health

Four days after I posted a blog requesting missing data on retrospective Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) detections and deaths, I received a response. 

Dr Anees Sindi, Deputy Commander of the Command and Control Centrer, Ministry of Health, Saudi Arabia replied. With his permission, I have reproduced his reply below.

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Sent: Tuesday, 23 September 2014 6:36 PM
To: Ian M Mackay
Subject: Re: your request for missing data on retrospective MERS-CoV detections

Dear Dr. Mackay,

I’m writing in response to your blog posting entitled “A request for missing data on retrospective MERS-CoV detections.”

Thank you for acknowledging the steps that the Ministry of Health’s Command & Control Center has taken to ensure members of the public -- including researchers around the world -- have access to real-time information about MERS-CoV cases in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

These daily postings are a small step on our journey toward full transparency. We want scientists to have access to the data they need to produce meaningful publications that advance our understanding of this disease for the benefit of mankind.

With that in mind, I am happy to inform you that the Ministry of Health is in the process of preparing additional data for public release. I will follow up with you once we have a confirmed release date.

Collaboration with the international research community is a key pillar of our work. In addition to sponsoring more than 30 research projects focused on MERS-CoV, the Ministry of Health has opened its doors to academics and experts from the World Health Organization and U.S. Centers for Disease Control & Prevention. MOH shares more data with the WHO than is required under the International Health Regulations, and we stand ready to support other scientists with an interest in better understanding coronavirus.

Thank you again for your interest in our work.

Best Regards,

Dr. Anees A. Sindi
Deputy Commander

Command and Control Center, Ministry of Health

Saudi Arabia

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This is fantastic news and I am very excited to hear that we may soon be able to complete the data picture for MERS-CoV. 

I am most grateful to Dr Sindi, the Minister and the Ministry for taking my request seriously and for replying to it so quickly.

With these data in hand, many of us will be able to build better epidemiological picture of the timing, spread and impact of MERS-CoV over the past 2 years as well as more specifically quantify MERS among fatal cases. 

These data do not answer all the questions we have of course, but they definitely answer some, and for that I'm thankful.

This social media thing does seem to have some impact.

Snapdate MERS-CoV chart update

Just a quick look at some updated Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) detection figures. 

For 2-days this past week we had zero cases reported, but we still had a number of deaths. On the 27-May alone there were 5 deaths across 3 regions.

Weeklies chart.
Number of lab-confirmed cases on the left upright (y-axis), the cumulative weekly
average can be read from the right y-axis and the bottom (x-axis) lists data by week, usually week when signs & symptoms onset otherwise by hospitalisation date or
reporting if nothing else is available.
Click on image to enlarge.

The dailies chart shows that detections have reached zero. Been a while since that happened-earl April was the last time. This will possibly change as cases from coming days fall out with onset dates in this week. 
Or perhaps there won't be any cases in the coming week. We can only hope.

Dailies chart.
Number of lab-confirmed detecteions on the left y-axis and the x-axis lists data by day,
usually day of when signs & symptoms onset otherwise by hospitalisation date or reporting
if nothing else is available.
Click on image to enlarge.

I haven't added a healthcare worker (HCW) to my line list for the past 63-detections. That's the longest period without an HCW in the history of MERS! Is that true or are those data now withheld form the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's numbers? Don't know. But here's what it looks like as yet another healthcare-related outbreak subsides.

Cumulative number of lab-confirmed detections among HCWs on the left y-axis while the right y-axis shows the proportion of MERS-CoV detection who were HCWs that week. The x-axis lists data by week, usually day of when signs & symptoms onset otherwise by hospitalisation date or reporting if nothing else is available.
Click on image to enlarge.

H7N9 snapdate: epidemic curve as Wave 2 looks to be ending...

Click on image to enlarge.

This image is another way of showing that the current wave of human cases of avian influenza A(H7N9) virus is ending and that we are solidly within a period of "tailing" (cases only ticking over at low levels in the lead-in or lead-out of the main peak).

BUT: These data are based on figures that are publicly available. As we learned overnight, those numbers can come in fits and starts, if at all. The addition of a large number of deaths without any identifying information linking to the case onset, supports what some have been suspecting for a while; we don't have a full picture of what's happening with H7N9. 

There are now up to 48 more deaths due to H7N9 infections, depending on where your base count is taken from (verified updates or or the media) than we knew about 12-hours ago.

More on that topic later today.